Fearing Inflation, Staying Risk-On: How Family Offices Are Positioning in 2026

Ask family offices what worries them in 2026, and inflation is near the top of the list. Ask where they are putting new capital, and the leading answer is public equities.

That gap between what investors fear and what they do is one of the more useful things to study right now. Three major surveys published this year, from Citi, UBS, and RBC with Campden Wealth, give an unusually detailed look at how large families are thinking. Read together, they describe family office investing as a balancing act: naming risks clearly while staying invested.

What the Surveys Say Family Offices Are Worried About

Citi Wealth's 2026 Global Family Office Report found that inflation became a leading concern this year, followed by interest rate developments, financial system stability, and market volatility. Trade disputes and tariffs, which were top of mind among respondents in 2025, declined significantly as sources of concern.¹ The backdrop is visible in the data: U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August, with core inflation at 2.4%.²

The concern isn't identical across surveys. UBS surveyed its family office clients earlier in the year, between January and March, and found geopolitical conflict to be the top risk over both short and long horizons, with concerns about global debt and recession rising. UBS also found that 65% of respondents expect confidence in the U.S. dollar's reserve status to weaken, even as North America continues to hold the largest share of allocations.³

Different survey windows produce different worry lists. What they share is a backdrop of uncertainty rather than a single dominant fear.

Figure 1: "What family offices worry about."

What Family Office Investing Looks Like When Inflation Is a Leading Concern

If concern translated directly into retreat, portfolios would look defensive. Citi's data shows something more nuanced. Nearly 90% of respondents reported positive portfolio performance year to date, and more than 40% made no major changes. Rather than repositioning wholesale, family offices relied on active management, hedging strategies, and targeted adjustments.¹

New capital leaned toward growth and liquidity. Nearly half of Citi's respondents increased their public equity exposure during the year, making it the top destination for new capital, and global developed equities ranked as the most favored asset class for future net allocations. Citi also notes that in an environment where returns are increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than valuation expansion, quality matters more.¹

Inflation shows up in the details. Citi expects short-duration income assets, quality exposures, and inflation-sensitive diversifiers to play a more important role in preserving real wealth.¹ UBS describes the broader pattern as measured: for the first time, 60% of its respondents plan to change their strategic asset allocation in the next 12 months, yet the shifts are modest, tilting toward emerging market equities and infrastructure and away from real estate.³

The Optimism Beneath the Caution

The risk-on side of the picture is clearest in the RBC and Campden Wealth survey of North American family offices. After a strong 2025, in which every asset class finished with a positive median return, expectations moved sharply. A year ago these offices expected an average annual return of 5%. This year, 84% expect direct private equity to meet or beat 2025 results over the next two to five years, and 74% expect the same of private equity funds.⁴ Artificial intelligence is the top investment pick for the next 12 months, chosen by 85% of offices.⁴

UBS found a similar pattern globally: 65% of its respondents are already invested across the AI value chain, and despite valuation concerns, they plan to maintain or increase exposure.³

Campden Wealth's director of research offered a candid read on the mood: "Even patient capital can be caught up in the fear of missing out."⁴ That observation is worth holding next to the inflation worries. Concern and enthusiasm are showing up in the same portfolios.

Where the Tension Shows Up

Two pressure points stand out across the surveys.

Liquidity. Most North American family offices, 86%, invest in private markets, and direct investments now average 45% of their private markets holdings, ahead of funds at 36%. Yet nearly one in five private-market investors attempted to exit a fund position this year, and 47% of those could not complete the exit as expected.⁴ Citi adds that family offices are becoming more selective in private markets, with greater emphasis on sourcing, expertise, and differentiated access.¹

Continuity. Portfolio positioning is only part of the picture. UBS found that only 35% of family offices have a defined succession plan for the family office itself.³ RBC and Campden report that half have an incomplete or nonexistent plan,⁴ and Citi notes that roughly a third of respondents expect a leadership transition within five years.¹

Figure 2: "The liquidity gap."

What Remains Unclear

These surveys capture stated views and self-reported results, not audited outcomes. Their respondents are also large families: average net worth was about $2.7 billion in UBS's sample and about $2.25 billion in the RBC and Campden sample, so the findings may not describe smaller family offices.³ ⁴ The surveys also ran at different times, and inflation data will keep moving.

There is also a question of timing. RBC and Campden note that expectations rose after a strong prior year, which raises the question of how much current optimism rests on past performance versus forward fundamentals.⁴

The Questions the Data Raises

The surveys don't point to one conclusion, but they do sharpen a few questions:

What does "risk-on" mean when a portfolio's biggest worry and its biggest allocation point in different directions?

How liquid is a portfolio relative to the plans the family has made for it?

Is current optimism anchored in forward fundamentals, or in last year's results?

What I find interesting is how consistently the data shows concern and conviction coexisting. Citi's respondents named inflation as a leading worry, then added to equities. RBC's respondents raised return expectations while reporting difficulty exiting private positions. Read together, the surveys describe capital that names its risks without abandoning its positions. Whether that holds as inflation data and market conditions evolve is the question long-horizon investors will be answering in the months ahead.

Explore more perspectives on family offices, private markets, and capital allocation at johnjezzini.com.

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Sources

¹ Citi Wealth, "Citi Wealth's 2026 Global Family Office Report Reveals Clients Are Shifting Their Focus Towards Public Equities While Becoming More Deliberate and Resilient Amid Uncertainty," press release, September 22, 2026.

² U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – August 2026, released September 11, 2026.

³ UBS, Global Family Office Report 2026, press release, May 28, 2026 (survey conducted January 22 – March 30, 2026; 307 family offices).

⁴ RBC Wealth Management and Campden Wealth, 2026 North America Family Office Report, press release, September 29, 2026 (155 family offices).